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可靠性 10

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A reliability growth model for 300?MW pumped-storage power units

Jinyuan SHI , Yu YANG , Zhicheng DENG ,

《能源前沿（英文）》 2009年 第3卷 第3期   页码 337-340 doi: 10.1007/s11708-009-0032-y

摘要： A reliability growth model for pumped-storage power units is presented. Ways for estimating and fitting on checking the model’s parameters are given together with analysis results concerning the reliability growth of 300MW pumped-storage power units. On site operation, reliability data show that the reliability growth model conforms to rules of reliability growth tendency. Analysis results of reliability growth indicate that measures taken for improving maintenance and operation by the pumped-storage power companies are effective and that the reliability of the 300MW pumped-storage power units exhibits a rising tendency.

关键词： pump-storage power unit     availability     reliability growth     reliability prediction    

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Availability growth models and verification of power equipment

Jinyuan SHI, Jiamin XU

《能源前沿（英文）》 2021年 第15卷 第2期   页码 529-538 doi: 10.1007/s11708-019-0624-0

摘要： The general availability growth models for large scale complicated repairable system such as electric generating units, power station auxiliaries, and transmission and distribution installations are presented. The calculation formulas for the maintenance coefficient, mathematical expressions for general availability growth models, ways for estimating, and fitting on checking the parameters of the model are introduced. Availability growth models for electric generating units, power station auxiliaries, and transmission and distribution installations are given together with verification examples for availability growth models of 320–1000 MW nuclear power units and 1000 MW thermal power units, 200–1000 MW power station auxiliaries, and 220–500 kV transmission and distribution installations. The verification results for operation availability data show that the maintenance coefficients for electric generating units, power station auxiliaries, transmission and distribution installations conform to the power function, and general availability growth models conform to rules of availability growth tendency of power equipment.

关键词： repairable system     power equipment     electric generating unit     power station auxiliary     transmission and distribution installation     reliability     availability     availability growth model    

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Inverse Gaussian process-based corrosion growth modeling and its application in the reliability analysis

Hao QIN, Shenwei ZHANG, Wenxing ZHOU

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2013年 第7卷 第3期   页码 276-287 doi: 10.1007/s11709-013-0207-9

摘要： This paper describes an inverse Gaussian process-based model to characterize the growth of metal-loss corrosion defects on energy pipelines. The model parameters are evaluated using the Bayesian methodology by combining the inspection data obtained from multiple inspections with the prior distributions. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation techniques are employed to numerically evaluate the posterior marginal distribution of each individual parameter. The measurement errors associated with the ILI tools are considered in the Bayesian inference. The application of the growth model is illustrated using an example involving real inspection data collected from an in-service pipeline in Alberta, Canada. The results indicate that the model in general can predict the growth of corrosion defects reasonably well. Parametric analyses associated with the growth model as well as reliability assessment of the pipeline based on the growth model are also included in the example. The proposed model can be used to facilitate the development and application of reliability-based pipeline corrosion management.

关键词： pipeline     metal-loss corrosion     inverse Gaussian process     measurement error     hierarchical Bayesian     Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)    

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Current status and prospects of reliability systems engineering in China

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年 第8卷 第4期   页码 492-502 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0172-2

摘要： This study provides a systematic overview of the advent and evolution of reliability systems engineering (RSE) in China, and the latest RSE development, that is, model-based RSE (MBRSE), is emphatically introduced. The establishment of the system architecture and conceptual models of MBRSE is first described. The fundamental theory and methodology of MBRSE are then elaborated, with a V-model as the core of this approach. The development of various MBRSE platforms and the effectiveness of their implementation over the past 30 years are presented. The prospective trends in the development of RSE in China are outlined.

关键词： reliability     effectiveness     model-based systems engineering     reliability systems engineering    

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Human reliability in maintenance task

Pacaiova HANA,

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2010年 第5卷 第2期   页码 184-188 doi: 10.1007/s11465-010-0002-4

摘要： Maintenance management requirements have another dimension in the present as in the past. Looking for the optimal tools of decision processing is hard. The current concepts have represented the integration of theoretical, technical, and management tools whose applications need actual modification. Technical measurements are expensive and take a long time/term, and it is hard to estimate the economical returns. This paper presents the concept of a maintenance management task and its function in preventing major accidents. The importance of considering the reliability of maintenance tasks and the method to reach it are also discussed in this paper.

关键词： maintenance     risk assessment     failure     reliability     prevention    

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Economic Growth Model Based on Six Basic Factors of Production—Xu Growth Rate Equation

Shou-bo Xu,Zong-yuan Huang

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2014年 第1卷 第2期   页码 160-175 doi: 10.15302/J-FEM-2014024

摘要： This paper proposes an economic growth model based on the Six Basic Factors of Production and Xu Growth Rate Equation for the first time, which fills-in the deficits of the New Classical Economic Growth Model based on the Solow Model. The empirical analysis indicates that over the past three decades, the consumption of six basic factors of production had complicated relations with economic growth. In some years, the consumption rate of the basic factors of production was meager, but the economy witnessed relatively rocketing growth rate; in some years, the factors of production consumption rate was very high, but the economy growth rate slowed down. In general, economy grows at the expenses of huge consumption of four factors. There is an obvious characteristic of huge input and low efficiency. The average contribution rate of technological advance peaks in the middle, while it drops down at two ends. Noticeably, since 2004, the technology contribution rate generally shows a downward trend, reasons of which should be explored systematically in aspects like economic policy and industry structure with a view to boost further transformation of the macro-economy scientific growth model.

关键词： six basic factors of production     economic growth model     Xu Growth Rate Equation    

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An overview of the reliability metrics for power grids and telecommunication networks

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年 第8卷 第4期   页码 531-544 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0167-z

摘要： Power grids deliver energy, and telecommunication networks transmit information. These two facilities are critical to human society. In this study, we conduct a comprehensive overview of the development of reliability metrics for power grids and telecommunication networks. The main purpose of this review is to promote and support the formulation of communication network reliability metrics with reference to the development of power grid reliability. We classify the metrics of power grid into the reliability of power distribution and generation/transmission and the metrics of telecommunication network into connectivity-based, performance-based, and state-based metrics. Then, we exhibit and discuss the difference between the situations of the reliability metrics of the two systems. To conclude this study, we conceive a few topics for future research and development for telecommunication network reliability metrics.

关键词： reliability     metrics     power grids     telecommunication networks    

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System reliability and system resilience

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年 第8卷 第4期   页码 615-619 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0176-y

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Special issue: Reliability management of complex system

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年 第8卷 第4期   页码 477-479 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0175-z

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Reliability design method for steam turbine blades

SHI Jinyuan

《能源前沿（英文）》 2008年 第2卷 第4期   页码 363-368 doi: 10.1007/s11708-008-0073-7

摘要： Based on theories of probability and statistics, and taking static stresses, dynamic stresses, endurance strength, safety ratios, vibration frequencies and exciting force frequencies of blades as random variables, a reliability design method for steam turbine blades is presented. The purport and calculation method for blade reliability are expounded. The distribution parameters of random variables are determined after analysis and numerical calculation of test data. The fatigue strength and the vibration design reliability of turbine blades are determined with the aid of a probabilistic design method and by interference models for stress distribution and strength distribution. Some blade reliability design calculation formulas for a dynamic stress design method, a safety ratio design method for fatigue strength, and a vibration reliability design method for the first and second types of tuned blades and a packet of blades on a disk connected closely, are given together with some practical examples. With these methods, the design reliability of steam turbine blades can be guaranteed in the design stage. This research may provide some scientific basis for reliability design of steam turbine blades.

关键词： design reliability     force     probability     purport     reliability design    

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An exploratory study for predicting component reliability with new load conditions

Zhengwei HU, Xiaoping DU

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2019年 第14卷 第1期   页码 76-84 doi: 10.1007/s11465-018-0522-x

摘要： Reliability is important to design innovation. A new product should be not only innovative, but also reliable. For many existing components used in the new product, their reliability will change because the applied Loads are different from the ones for which the components are originally designed and manufactured. Then the new reliability must be re-evaluated. The system designers of the new product, however, may not have enough information to perform this task. With a beam problem as a case study, this study explores a feasible way to re-evaluate the component reliability with new Loads given the following information: The original reliability of the component with respect to the component Loads and the distributions of the new component Loads. Physics-based methods are employed to build the equivalent component limit-state function that can predict the component failure under the new Loads. Since the information is limited, the re-evaluated component reliability is given by its maximum and minimum values. The case study shows that good accuracy can be obtained even though the new reliability is provided with the aforementioned interval.

关键词： reliability     component     failure mode     prediction     random variable    

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Principle of maximum entropy for reliability analysis in the design of machine components

Yimin ZHANG

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2019年 第14卷 第1期   页码 21-32 doi: 10.1007/s11465-018-0512-z

摘要： We studied the reliability of machine components with parameters that follow an arbitrary statistical distribution using the principle of maximum entropy (PME). We used PME to select the statistical distribution that best fits the available information. We also established a probability density function (PDF) and a failure probability model for the parameters of mechanical components using the concept of entropy and the PME. We obtained the first four moments of the state function for reliability analysis and design. Furthermore, we attained an estimate of the PDF with the fewest human bias factors using the PME. This function was used to calculate the reliability of the machine components, including a connecting rod, a vehicle half-shaft, a front axle, a rear axle housing, and a leaf spring, which have parameters that typically follow a non-normal distribution. Simulations were conducted for comparison. This study provides a design methodology for the reliability of mechanical components for practical engineering projects.

关键词： machine components     reliability     arbitrary distribution parameter     principle of maximum entropy    

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Clinical evaluation of recombinant human growth hormone injection in children with growth hormone deficiency

Ling HOU, Xiaoping LUO, Minlian DU, Huamei MA, Chunxiu GONG, Yuchuan LI, Shuixian SHEN, Zhuhui ZHAO, Li LIANG, Guanping DONG, Chaoying YAN, Hongwei DU

《医学前沿（英文）》 2009年 第3卷 第2期   页码 171-176 doi: 10.1007/s11684-009-0027-4

摘要： Recombinant human growth hormone (rhGH) has been widely used in the clinical treatment of growth hormone deficiency. To simplify the injection process and increase drug compliance, application of the GH injection has become a new treatment plan in recent years. The purpose of the current study was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of rhGH injection for the treatment of growth hormone deficiency (GHD) in children in China. In a nationwide, noncomparative, prospective, randomized, open trial, 31 children with confirmed complete GHD received subcutaneous injection of rhGH at 0.25 mg/kg·wk (0.107 IU/kg·d). The injection was given daily and the total weekly amount was separated into 6-7 injections. The patients were followed up at 3-month intervals and the treatment duration was 12 months. The height (HT), annual growth velocity (GV), mean height standard deviation score (HT SDS), blood serum insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I), insulin-like growth factor binding protein 3 (IGFBP-3), and bone maturity before and after treatment were compared, and the safety of the treatment was analyzed. The mean HT, GV, and HT SDS were increased from 109.0±14 cm, 2.7±0.9 cm/yr, and -4.62±1.46 at baseline to 121.8±13.4 cm, 12.9±3.3 cm/yr, and -2.47±1.86 after 12 months of treatment, respectively ( <0.001). At the same time, blood IGF-I and IGFBP-3 were increased significantly [41.27±64.43 μg/L 159.21±167.92 μg/L and 1540.00±1325.11 mg/L 3533.93±1413.82 mg/L, respectively ( <0.001)]. The bone age assessments performed 6 and 12 months after the treatment showed that no advanced bone maturation was noted. No serious adverse events occurred during the treatment, and the drug-related adverse events were mainly decreased thyroid function. We conclude that rhGH injection is a safe and effective drug for treatment of growth hormone deficiency in children.

关键词： recombinant human growth hormone     injection     growth hormone deficiency    

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Reliability prediction and its validation for nuclear power units in service

Jinyuan SHI,Yong WANG

《能源前沿（英文）》 2016年 第10卷 第4期   页码 479-488 doi: 10.1007/s11708-016-0425-7

摘要： In this paper a novel method for reliability prediction and validation of nuclear power units in service is proposed. The equivalent availability factor is used to measure the reliability, and the equivalent availability factor deducting planed outage hours from period hours and maintenance factor are used for the measurement of inherent reliability. By statistical analysis of historical reliability data, the statistical maintenance factor and the undetermined parameter in its numerical model can be determined. The numerical model based on the maintenance factor predicts the equivalent availability factor deducting planed outage hours from period hours, and the planed outage factor can be obtained by using the planned maintenance days. Using these factors, the equivalent availability factor of nuclear power units in the following 3 years can be obtained. Besides, the equivalent availability factor can be predicted by using the historical statistics of planed outage factor and the predicted equivalent availability factor deducting planed outage hours from period hours. The accuracy of the reliability prediction can be evaluated according to the comparison between the predicted and statistical equivalent availability factors. Furthermore, the reliability prediction method is validated using the nuclear power units in North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) and China. It is found that the relative errors of the predicted equivalent availability factors for nuclear power units of NERC and China are in the range of –2.16% to 5.23% and –2.15% to 3.71%, respectively. The method proposed can effectively predict the reliability index in the following 3 years, thus providing effective reliability management and maintenance optimization methods for nuclear power units.

关键词： nuclear power units in service     reliability     reliability prediction     equivalent availability factors    

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A PDEM-based perspective to engineering reliability: From structures to lifeline networks

Jie LI

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2020年 第14卷 第5期   页码 1056-1065 doi: 10.1007/s11709-020-0636-1

摘要： Research of reliability of engineering structures has experienced a developing history for more than 90 years. However, the problem of how to resolve the global reliability of structural systems still remains open, especially the problem of the combinatorial explosion and the challenge of correlation between failure modes. Benefiting from the research of probability density evolution theory in recent years, the physics-based system reliability researches open a new way for bypassing this dilemma. The present paper introduces the theoretical foundation of probability density evolution method in view of a broad background, whereby a probability density evolution equation for probability dissipative system is deduced. In conjunction of physical equations and structural failure criteria, a general engineering reliability analysis frame is then presented. For illustrative purposes, several cases are studied which prove the value of the proposed engineering reliability analysis method.

关键词： PDEM     reliability     structure     lifeline networks    

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标题 作者 时间 类型 操作

A reliability growth model for 300?MW pumped-storage power units

Jinyuan SHI , Yu YANG , Zhicheng DENG ,

期刊论文

Availability growth models and verification of power equipment

Jinyuan SHI, Jiamin XU

期刊论文

Inverse Gaussian process-based corrosion growth modeling and its application in the reliability analysis

Hao QIN, Shenwei ZHANG, Wenxing ZHOU

期刊论文

Current status and prospects of reliability systems engineering in China

期刊论文

Human reliability in maintenance task

Pacaiova HANA,

期刊论文

Economic Growth Model Based on Six Basic Factors of Production—Xu Growth Rate Equation

Shou-bo Xu,Zong-yuan Huang

期刊论文

An overview of the reliability metrics for power grids and telecommunication networks

期刊论文

System reliability and system resilience

期刊论文

Special issue: Reliability management of complex system

期刊论文

Reliability design method for steam turbine blades

SHI Jinyuan

期刊论文

An exploratory study for predicting component reliability with new load conditions

Zhengwei HU, Xiaoping DU

期刊论文

Principle of maximum entropy for reliability analysis in the design of machine components

Yimin ZHANG

期刊论文

Clinical evaluation of recombinant human growth hormone injection in children with growth hormone deficiency

Ling HOU, Xiaoping LUO, Minlian DU, Huamei MA, Chunxiu GONG, Yuchuan LI, Shuixian SHEN, Zhuhui ZHAO, Li LIANG, Guanping DONG, Chaoying YAN, Hongwei DU

期刊论文

Reliability prediction and its validation for nuclear power units in service

Jinyuan SHI,Yong WANG

期刊论文

A PDEM-based perspective to engineering reliability: From structures to lifeline networks

Jie LI

期刊论文